Thursday, February 09, 2006
I came to a realization today. Maybe I haven't been running as bad as I think. I was thinking about my play today and going over some hands. I realized one big thing. I'm giving these donkies way too much credit.
I'm just now going back to the full ring game world after spending over a year playing only short handed poker. I don't think I've fully shifted gears. It all comes down to the fact that I'm making horrible call downs. There's a small... teensy weensy ... maybe even non-existant percentage of players at these low limits with the ability to pull off turn check raise bluffs and river raise bluffs.
My problem. It seems so many times, I'm getting raised on the river. Especially during this run where my dominating hands are getting dominated. For instance:
Let's say I'm on the button with AK. Middle position raises and I 3 bet and we get heads up going to the flop. The flop comes A-x-x. He bets, I raise, or he checks, I bet, then he calls or raises. Flop action doesn't matter. I'm taking control of this hand regardless. Now the turn comes a blank. The action goes check, bet, call. I'm feeling good about my hand. The river comes a Jack. The action goes, check, bet, check-raise. Uh oh. Now we've got a good size pot here. I'm about 99.9% certain I'm beat here. Now I'm about 100% certain, I'm making a crying call here. But honestly, what do I beat other than a bluff? I still think it would be a mistake to fold here just because of the pot size and the odds it is laying you.
Now, let's change the action again. Same hand as above except this time I get check raised on the turn... now it gets interesting. Again, what do I beat here? I have TPTK, but the average and even above average $2/4 players just don't have the balls to check raise me on the turn with just TPGK. I think I should be laying these hands down. The problem is that I'm calling them down, which will cost me 2 more bets just to "be sure". A huge percentage of the time, I was right and just wasted at least 2 bets. Occasionally, I will luck out against them.
I guess it's all situational and depends who you are up against. All I know is that I'm calling down too much when I KNOW I'm beat. What good is working on your reads if you never trust them?
I'm going to work on trusting my reads and not calling down so much.
Yesterday was a decent day. I did decent bowling (shot a 221 in my 2nd game), we took 6 of 8 points to remain in first. I only played a couple hundred hands of poker where I won about 15 BBs.
Some bad news came yesterday. Party shut down my rakeback account. They had closed both accounts and I was told that I could tell them to close the old account. They had none of that nonsense. My only option was to close the new account. So, as the rakeback nazi says, "NO RAKEBACK FOR YOU!".
Tonight, I'll get back on track. I don't have any plans other than poker. I'll also get you an update on this trainwreck of a challenge I have going on.