Sunday, January 15, 2006
VARIANCE IS HIGH.... I REPEAT... VARIANCE IS HIGH.
or
I just suck at poker. Played 541 hands today for a loss of $64. I was winning big early in the session. Everything was hitting for me and I thought this was going to be the day. However, about mid-way through the session, Lee Jones stuck it in my cornhole and pushed the doom button on me.
I've been using Poker Tracker to find out where I'm leaking money during this worst losing streak of my life (well over 300BBs at this point). It looks like my biggest losses are coming from beats that I'm taking where I have the villian dominated. My AK hands are losing to KJ, AQ losing to KQ and things like that. So that's good news. There are some other things I need to clear up, but everything looks mostly kosher as far as the way I'm playing. I feel good about my game and my spirits are still high. Unfortunately, the bankroll isn't. Such is life in the short-handed world though.
I've achieved my Silver Star status in the VIP club on Stars, but for some reason, I was thinking the iPod Nano was only 8000 FPPs. I went to buy it and noticed that it was 16,000 FPPs. I'm not sure if it changed from the first time I looked or if I'm just and idiot. Probably the latter. So I still got a ways to go for that.
I also think I'm going to start playing some more full table poker. Maybe a change in the games will spark the poker gods to shine on me for a while. I'll probably go to Party for the full table games.
Some interesting stats from 12/1 through today:
The following long term winning hands for me are losing money during this horrendous streak: AK suited, AQ offsuit, AT suited, QQ, JJ, TT, 88, 77 (big time), and 66. However, over the last 100,000 hands here are the stats for the same starting hands:
AK suited: +0.74 BB/Hand
AQ off: +0.39 BB/Hand
AT suited: +0.43 BB/Hand
QQ: +1.24 BB/Hand
JJ: +1.22 BB/Hand
TT: +0.87 BB/Hand
88: +0.50 BB/Hand
77: +0.12 BB/Hand
66: +0.20 BB/Hand
The above numbers include hands during my losing streak. I couldn't figure out how to get the 100,000 prior to the beginning of the downswing.
Another stat: Over the last 100,000 hands, suited connectors are a net winner for me (+0.12 BB/Hand). During the downswing they are actually still winning (+0.07 BB/Hand) which is surprising to me.
I would really like to know how my numbers stand compared to the others that read this blog and have poker tracker. I would post the numbers on 2+2, but that would be like comparing apples to oranges. Most 2+2'ers play a different style than me. I'm about 5-10% looser on my VP$IP than the average 2+2'er. My VP$IP hangs around 29% and my PF Raise is around 18.5%. The average 2+2'er stays around 21-24% in short handed games, which I think can surely be winning, but not optimal. I rely on position and aggression to win money. I try to squeeze as many bets as I can when I have a winning hand. From reading the Short handed forums on 2+2, they seem to be too quick to go into call-down mode.
Also, I'm talking about the typical 2+2'er. There are a select few posters in the group that play more loose and more aggressive, and make good reads all at the same time. Their bankrolls show it too. These are the guys that I like to read. However, they spend too much time in the OOT forum and not enough time giving me some insight into their games ;)
Lastly, I really need a faster computer. My laptop is fairly fast, but Poker Tracker brings it to its knees. Especially when using the Filters feature using all my recorded hands. I tried installing the Postgresql to convert to that, but something keeps going wrong in the conversion. There's a problem with my database and it takes MS Access to fix it. I don't have Access, but I think we have one somewhere at work. I just need to find it.
2 comments:
Thanks for the comments.
- My post was a little misleading. I was posting some interesting stats from my starting hands. While I've been studying my sessions in poker tracker, I have actually been paying more attention to the post flop play than pre-flop, but it's just hard to post any kind of numbers that are worth any interest to the average reader.
- I never open-limp. Even in a full-game, I've burnt it into my head to never open limp. However, I think my PF Raise % is a little lacking because of my blind play. I think I'm too passive in the blinds.... mostly because I hate playing out of position and I plain suck at it.
I recently went through a bad downswing myself, so I feel I can help you here...
You mention your preflop game. However, most of the money in poker is made (or lost) postflop. Therefore, if I were you, I would study my postflop stats a little more, when trying to isolate where you may be leaking chips.
Also my guess is that maybe you're went to showdown % is a little high (anything from 40% or higher is a bit much). I am assuming this because you said that you have been loosing mostly with hands that have your opponents dominated preflop. If this is the case, I think you need to take note of which opponents are passive and which ones are aggressive. I have found that when passive players bet or raise the turn, typically, they'll have your top pair screwed over. With aggressive opponents, I'll call down my top pair on the turn (sometimes 3-bet it with a read).
Also, in terms of VPIP, I think that although you are right about 21% being too tight to be optimal shorthanded, you are not playing aggressively enough preflop to advocate your looser style. If you are to fully take advantage of position in shorthanded games, then you need to raise it up preflop most of the time. And if your VPIP is 29% but your PFR is only 18.5%, then that tells me that you are limping in way too much preflop.
As a test, try using a 'raise or fold' policy when you find yourself either 1st or 2nd to act preflop. By doing this, you'll isolate weak limpers, and gain position postflop by pushing out the Button or Cutoff. Limping too much preflop, simply invites too many multiway flops (by not overcharging the blinds to see the board). And in shorthanded poker, you'll want many of the pots you play to be heads up.
Also, on twoplustwo, I recommend you only read and study the mid-high shorthanded stakes forum. If you want to improve as a shorthanded player, that is the only forum (in my experiance) worth reading for advice. Focus on the discussions that have 7 or more replies. Those tend to have some heated and well thoughout replies (generally).